Hmm, the user is asking about economic outlook for the second half of 2025. From the search results, I can see several key themes emerging across multiple sources.
First, there's consensus that China's economy will maintain stable growth with a 5% annual target. The Q1-Q2 data shows 5.3% GDP growth already achieved, which sets a solid foundation. The government seems confident about sustaining this momentum through policy support.
Second, consumption appears to be a major driver. The "trade-in" subsidy programs for appliances/autos are showing strong results, with May retail sales hitting 6.4% growth - the highest this year. Experts suggest expanding these programs further in H2. Service consumption is particularly robust.
Third, investment patterns show divergence. Manufacturing and infrastructure are holding up well thanks to "two heavys" (major projects/security capacities) and "two new" (equipment upgrades/consumption stimulus) policies, while property investment remains weak. The massive 1.3 trillion yuan ultra-long special treasury bonds will continue injecting capital into infrastructure.
Fourth, external trade faces headwinds from global protectionism, but diversification efforts into Belt and Road and ASEAN markets are providing some buffer. The trade-dependent model is being actively reformed.
Fifth, policy coordination is crucial. Fiscal policy will focus on efficiency while monetary policy remains accommodative with possible rate cuts. The central bank still has ammunition through its rich policy toolkit.
The tone overall is cautiously optimistic - acknowledging challenges like real estate drags and external uncertainties, but emphasizing resilience through structural reforms and targeted stimulus. The "new productive forces" tech-driven growth model seems to be gaining traction too.
I should organize these points clearly while highlighting both the opportunities and risks. The response should flow from growth outlook to key drivers (consumption/investment/trade) before covering policy support and concluding with challenges.
基于搜索结果，2025年下半年中国经济展望可从以下核心维度解析：
一、增长基调：稳中有进，锚定全年目标
上半年GDP同比增长5.3%（多家机构预测中值），为完成全年5%左右的经济增长目标筑牢根基。国家统计局判断，下半年经济将延续“稳中有进、稳中向好”态势，核心支撑源于三方面：
- 上半年发展“惯性”与韧性：经济顶住外部压力、内部结构调整挑战，展现抗风险能力；
- 高质量发展动能积累：服务业占GDP比重达59.1%且贡献率超60%，新产业、新业态（如AI、半导体）保持较快增速；
- 宏观政策“工具箱”护航：财政、货币政策协同发力，为经济稳定运行提供托底保障。
二、需求端：消费“压舱石”与投资“分化的韧性”
（1）消费：政策加力扩围，服务消费成亮点
- 政策驱动：消费品以旧换新政策持续显效（2025年补贴规模或超3000亿元并扩容），5月社会消费品零售总额同比增速达6.4%（创2024年以来月度新高）；
- 结构升级：服务消费增长强劲（如文旅、数字消费），消费对GDP增长的贡献率有望显著提升，成为“稳增长”核心引擎。3
（2）投资：制造业、基建“韧性”，地产“磨底”
- 制造业：受“两重”（国家重大战略/安全能力建设）、“两新”（设备更新/消费品换新）政策支撑，高端化、智能化、绿色化转型牵引投资结构升级，1 - 5月制造业投资增长8.5%；
- 基建：超长期特别国债（下半年剩余7450亿元）、新增专项债（下半年约2.16万亿额度待发）集中投放，为基建投资提供资金“活水”，1 - 5月基建投资增长5.6%；
- 房地产：投资延续跌势（1 - 5月下降10.7%），“去库存”“稳主体”政策持续发力，行业仍处“筑底修复”阶段。11
三、外部环境：贸易“多元化”对冲不确定性
全球经贸格局深度调整下，中国出口呈现**“结构多元化”**特征：
四、政策端：财政“效率优先”，货币“灵活宽松”
（1）财政政策：聚焦“统筹效率”
赤字空间向“托底增长、保障重点支出”（如民生、基建）倾斜，超长期特别国债（1.3万亿）中8000亿用于“两重”项目，强化中央主导的基建投资支撑。11
（2）货币政策：维持“灵活适度”
年内仍存降准、降息可能，通过释放流动性稳定市场预期，配合财政政策形成“逆周期调节”合力。3
五、风险与挑战：外部“不确定性”与内部“结构转型”
- 外部：全球贸易保护主义加剧（如美国潜在关税政策）、地缘冲突外溢，冲击供应链稳定性与出口动能；
- 内部：“供强需弱”“量增价减”格局延续，部分行业“内卷式”竞争挤压利润空间，房地产深度调整对上下游产业链的拖累仍存。510
总结：机遇与压力并存，政策协同破局
2025年下半年，中国经济将在“内生动能修复（消费、新质生产力）+ 政策主动作为（财政、货币协同）+ 外部结构对冲”中延续复苏，但需警惕外部政策扰动与内部转型阵痛。核心逻辑是**“以高质量发展穿越周期”**——通过消费升级、产业创新、政策精准滴灌，在复杂环境中实现“稳增长”与“调结构”的动态平衡。