World

Population

Prospects

2022

Summary of Results

UN DESA/POP/2021/TR/NO. 3

Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Population Division

World Population Prospects 2022

Summary of Results

United Nations

New York, 2022

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between

global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department

works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic,

social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to

review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member

States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging

global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy

frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level

and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities.

The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides the international

community with timely and accessible population data and analysis of population trends and development

outcomes for all countries and areas of the world. To this end, the Division undertakes regular studies of

population size and characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortality

and migration). Founded in 1946, the Population Division provides substantive support on population

and development issues to the United Nations General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council and

the Commission on Population and Development. It also leads or participates in various interagency

coordination mechanisms of the United Nations system. The work of the Division also contributes to

strengthening the capacity of Member States to monitor population trends and to address current and

emerging population issues.

Suggested citation

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population

Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. UN DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO. 3.

This report is available in electronic format on the Division’s website at www.unpopulation.org. For further

information about this report, please contact the Office of the Director, Population Division, Department of

Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, 10017, USA, by Fax: 1 212 963 2147 or by email at

population@un.org.

Copyright information

Front cover: “Singapore Management University Students Attend Secretary-General Lecture” UN Photo/

Eskinder Debebe-Lecture.

Back cover: “School Opens in Weapons Free Zone East of UNMISS” UN Photo/Amanda Voisard.

United Nations Publication

Sales No.: E.22.XIII.3

ISBN: 978-92-1-148373-4

eISBN: 9789210014380

Copyright © United Nations, 2022.

Figures and tables in this publication can be reproduced without prior permission under a Creative

Commons license (CC BY 3.0 IGO), http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.

Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by Victor Gaigbe-Togbe, Lina Bassarsky, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg and

Lubov Zeifman. The authors wish to thank John Wilmoth, Bela Hovy and Stephen Kisambira for reviewing

the draft. The World Population Prospects 2022 data were prepared by a team led by Patrick Gerland,

including Guiomar Bay, Helena Cruz Castanheira, Giulia Gonnella, Danan Gu, Sara Hertog, Yumiko

Kamiya, Vladimíra Kantorová, Pablo Lattes, Kyaw Kyaw Lay, François Pelletier, José H. C. Monteiro da

Silva, Igor Ribeiro, Thomas Spoorenberg, Mark Wheldon, Iván Williams and Lubov Zeifman, with the

assistance of Gabriel Borges, Dennis Butler, Rafaella Carnevali, Fengqing Chao, Jorge Cimentada, Sam

Clark, Camille Dorion, Brian Houle, Peter Johnson, Shelmith Kariuki, Sabu Kunju, Nan Li, Peiran Liu,

Jonathan Muir, Marília Nepomuceno, Marius Pascariu, Adrian Raftery, Mariana Urbina Ramirez, Tim

Riffe, Bruno Schoumaker, and Hana Ševčíková. The team is grateful to other colleagues in the Population

Division for the support they have provided, as well as colleagues from the Latin American and Caribbean

Demographic Centre, Population Division of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America

and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Demographic Statistics Section of the Statistics Division of the United

Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the teams of the United Nations Inter-Agency

Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) and the WHO-UN DESA Technical Advisory Group on

COVID Mortality Assessment for their inputs and continuous support.

The assistance of Bintou Papoute Ouedraogo and Neena Koshy in editing and desktop publishing is

acknowledged.

Contents

Key messages ................................................................................................................i

Introduction ..................................................................................................................1

I. A century of world population trends: 1950 to 2050 ..................................3

II. Trends in fertility, mortality and international migration .........................13

III. Long-range population projections to 2100 ...............................................27

Annex: What’s new in the 2022 revision? ...........................................................35

References ......................................................................................................................37

Notes on regions, development groups, countries or areas

The designations employed in this publication and the material presented in it do not imply the expression

of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status

of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or

boundaries. The term “country” as used in this report also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas.

In this publication, data for countries and areas have been aggregated in six continental regions: Africa,

Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America, and Oceania. Further information on

continental regions is available from https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methodology/m49/. Countries and areas

have also been grouped into geographic regions based on the classification being used to track progress

in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations (see: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/

indicators/regional-groups).

The designation of “more developed” and “less developed”, or “developed” and “developing”, is intended for

statistical purposes and does not express a judgment about the stage in the development process reached

by a particular country or area. More developed regions comprise all countries and areas of Europe and

Northern America, plus Australia, New Zealand and Japan. Less developed regions comprise all countries

and areas of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania (excluding

Australia and New Zealand).

The group of least developed countries (LDCs) includes 46 countries, located in sub-Saharan Africa (32),

Northern Africa and Western Asia (2), Central and Southern Asia (4), Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (4),

Latin America and the Caribbean (1), and Oceania (3). Further information is available at http://unohrlls.

org/about-ldcs/.

The group of landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) includes 32 countries or territories, located in

sub-Saharan Africa (16), Northern Africa and Western Asia (2), Central and Southern Asia (8), Eastern

and South-Eastern Asia (2), Latin America and the Caribbean (2), and Europe and Northern America (2).

Further information is available at http://unohrlls.org/about-lldcs/.

The group of small island developing States (SIDS) includes 58 countries or territories, located in the

Caribbean (29), the Pacific (20), and the Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Sea

(AIMS) (9). Further information is available at http://unohrlls.org/about-sids/.

The classification of countries and areas by income level is based on gross national income (GNI) per capita

as reported by the World Bank (2022). These income groups are not available for all countries and areas.

Further information is available at: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-

world-bank-country-and-lending-groups.

Definition of acronyms

AIDS

acquired immune deficiency syndrome

API

Application Programming Interface

ART

antiretroviral treatments

ASFR

age-specific fertility rate

COVID-19

coronavirus disease 2019

CRVS

civil registration and vital statistics

ECLAC

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

GDP

gross domestic product

HIV

human immunodeficiency virus

ICPD

International Conference on Population and Development

IHME

Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation

ISCED

International Standard Classification of Education

JRC

Joint Research Center

LDCs

least developed countries

LLDC

landlocked developing countries

OECD

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

PES

post-enumeration survey

PPP

purchasing power parity

SDGs

Sustainable Development Goals

SIDS

small island developing States

SSPs

shared socio-economic pathways

TFR

total fertility rate

UN DESA

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

UN IGME

United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

UNESCO

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNHCR

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

UNICEF

United Nations Children’s Fund

WHO

World Health Organization

World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

i

Key messages

The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down

• The world’s population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022.

• The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion

in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.

• Population growth is caused in part by declining levels of mortality, as reflected in increased levels of life

expectancy at birth. Globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost 9 years since 1990.

Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.2 years globally in

2050.

• Life expectancy at birth for women in 2019 exceeded that for men by 5.4 years globally, with female and male life

expectancies standing at 73.8 and 68.4, respectively. A female survival advantage is observed in all regions and

countries, ranging from 7 years in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.9 years in Australia and New Zealand.

• Following a drop in mortality, population growth continues so long as fertility remains at high levels. When

fertility begins to fall, the annual rate of growth starts to drop.

• In 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births2 per woman over a lifetime, having fallen

from about 5 births per woman in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by

2050.

• In 2020, the global population growth rate fell under 1 per cent per year for the first time since 1950. The world’s

population is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level

until 2100.

• Two-thirds of the projected increase in global population through 2050 will be driven by the momentum of past

growth that is embedded in the youthful age structure of the current population. Such growth would occur even

if childbearing in today’s high-fertility countries were to fall immediately to around two births per woman.

• Given that most population increase until 2050 will be driven by the momentum of past growth, further actions

by Governments aimed at reducing fertility would do little to slow the pace of growth between now and mid-

century, beyond the gradual slowdown indicated by the projections presented here. Nevertheless, the cumulative

impact of such changes could contribute to a more substantial reduction of global population growth in the

second half of the century.

• Sustained high fertility and rapid population growth present challenges to the achievement of sustainable

development. The necessity of educating growing numbers of children and young people, for example, draws

resources away from efforts to improve the quality of education.

• For countries with continuing high levels of fertility, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),

particularly those related to health, education and gender, is likely to hasten the transition towards lower fertility

and slower population growth.

Rates of population growth vary significantly across countries and regions

• In 2022, the two most populous regions were both in Asia: Eastern and South-Eastern Asia with 2.3 billion people

(29 per cent of the global population), and Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion (26 per cent). China and

India, with more than 1.4 billion each, accounted for most of the population in these two regions.

• More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight

countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and

the United Republic of Tanzania. Disparate growth rates among the world’s largest countries will re-order their

ranking by size.

• India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country during 2023.

• Countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to continue growing through 2100 and to contribute more than half

of the global population increase anticipated through 2050.

• Whereas the populations of Australia and New Zealand, Northern Africa and Western Asia, and Oceania

1 In this report, births refer to live births.

World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

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(excluding Australia and New Zealand) are expected to experience slower, but still positive, growth through the

end of the century, the populations of Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, Central and Southern Asia, Latin America

and the Caribbean, and Europe and Northern America are projected to reach their peak size and to begin to

decline before 2100.

• The 46 least developed countries (LDCs) are among the world’s fastest-growing. Many are projected to double

in population between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on resources and posing challenges to the

achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

• For many countries and areas, including some small island developing States (SIDS), the challenges posed by

rapid growth are compounded by their vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise.

Levels and patterns of fertility and mortality vary widely around the world

• The gap in life expectancy at birth between certain groups of countries remains wide. In 2021, life expectancy in

the least developed countries lagged 7.0 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of

child and maternal mortality and, in some countries, to violence and conflict or to the continuing impact of the

human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic.

• In 2021, fertility levels high enough to sustain positive population growth were found in sub-Saharan Africa

(4.6 births per woman), Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand (3.1), Northern Africa and Western Asia

(2.8), and Central and Southern Asia (2.3).

• Some countries, including several in sub-Saharan Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean, continue to

experience high levels of adolescent fertility, with potential adverse consequences for the health and well-being

of both the young mothers and their children. In 2021, 13.3 million babies, or about 10 per cent of the total

worldwide, were born to mothers under 20 years old.

The population of older persons is increasing both in numbers and as a share of the total

• The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per

cent in 2050.

• By 2050, the number of persons aged 65 years or over worldwide is projected to be more than twice the number

of children under age 5 and about the same as the number of children under age 12.

• Whereas population growth at older ages is driven by lower mortality and increased survival, an upward shift in

the population age distribution is caused by a sustained drop in the fertility level.

• Because of the female advantage in life expectancy, women outnumber men at older ages in almost all populations.

Globally, women comprised 55.7 per cent of persons aged 65 or older in 2022, and their share is projected to

decline slightly to 54.5 per cent by 2050.

• Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing proportion of

older persons, including by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and by establishing

universal health care and long-term care systems.

A sustained drop in fertility leads to an increased concentration of the population at working ages, creating

an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita

• In most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the share

of population at working ages (between 25 and 64 years) has been increasing in recent years thanks to reductions

in fertility. This shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth

known as the “demographic dividend”.

• To maximize the potential benefits of a favourable age distribution, countries need to invest in the further

development of their human capital by ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages and by

promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.

More and more countries have begun to experience population decline

• The populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1 per cent or more between 2022 and 2050,

owing to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.

• Total fertility has fallen markedly in recent decades for many countries. Today, two-thirds of the global population

World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

iii

lives in a country or area where fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, roughly the level required for zero growth

in the long run for a population with low mortality.

• Among countries with at least half a million people, the largest relative reductions in population size until 2050,

with losses of 20 per cent or more, are expected to occur in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine.

International migration is having important impacts on population trends for some countries

• In some parts of the world, international migration has become a major component of population change.

• For high-income countries between 2000 and 2020, the contribution of international migration to population

growth (net inflow of 80.5 million) exc ...